Featured Essay

The Decline of Deviance

The Thesis

People are less weird than they used to be. Not just subjectively—the data from every sector points to a recession of mischief, crisis of conventionality, epidemic of the mundane. Deviance is declining.

This isn’t a recent internet phenomenon. It started in the 1980s-2000s across different domains. And it’s not purely bad—it’s miraculous and dismal simultaneously.

The Evidence

Teenagers Are Saints Now

High schoolers are less than half as likely to drink alcohol as in the 1990s. They’re also less likely to:

  • Smoke, have sex, or fight
  • Use drugs (meth, ecstasy, hallucinogens, painkillers)
  • Even vaping declined from 2015-2023
  • Bring guns to school (down dramatically)
  • Get pregnant

This isn’t survey bias—teenage pregnancy rates confirm the trend with hard data.

Adults Behave Better Too

  • Crime rates: down 50% in 30 years
  • Serial killing: on the decline
  • Cult formation: collapsed after the 1980s
  • Anti-social behavior: steep decline

Good deviance is disappearing too. Americans are less likely to move since the mid-1980s. “The typical adult lives only 18 miles from their mother.”

Creativity Is Dying

All popular art forms have become oligopolies. Before 2000: 25% of top-grossing movies were sequels/spinoffs. Now: 75%.

The same pattern in TV, music, video games, books. Popular music is more homogenous and has more repetitive lyrics than ever.

Every novel cover looks the same. Every website converged on sleek minimalism. The internet changed dramatically from 1990s→2000s→2010s, but hasn’t changed much since 2010s.

The Physical World Looks Identical

  • Every cafe: same bourgeois boho style
  • Every apartment building: same design
  • Every AirBnB: same aesthetic
  • Every logo: sans serif wordmark
  • Most cars: black, silver, gray, or white

Science Has Stagnated

  • Fewer disruptive discoveries
  • Less impressive breakthroughs (per expert ratings)
  • Fewer major innovations per capita
  • Scientific papers: all sound the same, follow identical format
  • The “weird nerds” are fleeing academia

The Cause

Life is worth more now. Not morally—literally.

The “value of a statistical life” (how much people will pay to reduce death risk) has skyrocketed, even faster than GDP growth.

Two reasons:

  1. We’re richer (can afford to de-risk)
  2. Life is less dangerous (making remaining risks more salient)

When you’re born into milk and honey, you adopt a “slow life history strategy”—Pilates over drunk driving, 401(k) over unprotected sex. Everything must last: joints, skin, reputation.

The Grandfather Test

Both Mastroianni’s grandfathers died in their 60s (on track with life expectancy when born). They:

  • Grew up during Depression
  • Lived without electricity/plumbing
  • Were drafted to Korean War
  • Couldn’t be “precious” about life

Compare that to today: big-screen TV, sushi delivery, life expectancy of 80+. Why risk all this?

Things done casually then—smoking, hitchhiking in truck beds, postponing medical treatment—feel unthinkable now.

The Trap

We start following rules, never stop, then forget rules can be broken. Most rule-breaking is bad, but some is necessary. We’ve lost both simultaneously.

The Harvard Paradox

Getting an elite degree should increase options. Instead, it makes students too afraid to choose any but the safest. 50% of Harvard grads go to finance, tech, consulting.

Not because they love PowerPoints or profit optimization, but because these jobs are safe, lucrative, prestigious. They dreamed of what they’d gain; they didn’t realize they’d gain something to lose.

The richest students pick the safest careers. More money = more to protect.

The Artist Who Dug Holes

Arturo Di Modica:

  • Ran away from Sicily to study art in Florence
  • Immigrated to US, worked as mechanic/technician
  • Bought dilapidated NYC building, illegally built his own studio (including two sub-basements) by hand
  • Refused art dealers until age 70
  • Created Charging Bull statue, deposited it on Wall Street without permission
  • City impounded it, public outcry brought it back
  • His message: “If you want to do something in a moment things are very bad, you can do it. You can do it by yourself.”

Compare that to Fearless Girl (2017): commissioned by investment company to promote an index fund.

The Challenge

Who would live Di Modica’s life now? Every step is inadvisable. Even if someone tried, the systems would shut them down—schools force you home, real estate is unaffordable, cities shut you down.

The decline of deviance is mainly good. Lives are longer, safer, healthier, richer.

But making trivial risks seem terrifying means we’ve tamed every frontier. We need:

  • New institutions
  • New eddies and corners
  • Tucked-away spaces where strange things can grow

The Choice

For the first time in history, weirdness is a choice. A hard one. We have more to lose than ever.

If we want interesting art and enlightening science, we must tolerate illegal holes in the basement. And somebody must be brave enough to climb down into them.