Fewer children, almost everywhere
An interesting paper by Michael Geruso and Dean Spears on falling fertility rates around the world. According to their data, 67% of the world’s population now lives in a country where fertility is below replacement.
Chosen and annotated by Bhuvanesh · words and plates by the machine, from the sources named; every figure in the words is one of the story’s facts, each listed with its method
- IThe fallPlate I
- IIThe crossingPlate II
- IIITwelve countriesPlate III
- IVThe floorPlate IV
- VThe peakPlate V
- VIWhere babies are bornPlate VI
- VIIIndiaPlate VII
- VIIIWhy India keeps growingPlate VIII
Checked45factseach with its method
The principal figures
- 5.31
- children per woman in the world in 1963, the peak
- 2.25
- in 2023, just above replacement at 2.1
- 67%
- of the world’s people live where fertility is below 2.1
- 2012
- the year the world’s births peaked, at 146 million, in the UN’s central projection
- 0
- of 51 countries that fell below 1.5 have come back to replacement
Movement I
IIt happened everywhere
Plate I · The fall
The world went from 5.31 children per woman to 2.25 in sixty years
In 1963 the average woman could expect 5.31 children; by 2023, 2.25, just above the 2.1 at which each generation replaces the last. 158 of 161 countries ended lower than they began. In the UN's projection for 2100, half the countries end between 1.58 and 1.89, and the world goes below 2.1 in 2050.
Plate II · The crossing
Two in three people now live where fertility is below replacement
Japan crossed 2.1 in 1957, the United States in 1972, China in 1991, India in 2020. Each circle is a country, sized by its people: 83 had crossed by 2023, home to 67 per cent of the world. The hollow ones cross in the UN's projection; 11 do not before 2100.
Plate III · Twelve countries
Twelve countries, one scale
Each panel is one country against the world in grey, on one scale. The UN projects 7 of these 12 to drift up from where they are now and the rest to keep falling; by 2100 all 12 are between 1.30 and 1.91.
Movement II
IIIt does not come back
Plate IV · The floor
Of 51 countries that fell below 1.5, none has come back
51 countries of a million people or more have gone below 1.5 children per woman. None has returned to replacement; the highest any has climbed back to is 1.89, in Moldova. South Korea, at 0.72 in 2023, is the lowest of them.
To put it bluntly, history offers no examples of societies recognizing very low birth rates as a social priority and then responding with effective changes that restore, and sustain, replacement-level fertility.
At South Korea’s rate
100adults
34children
12grandchildren
Arithmetic on one number, not a forecast: each generation is the last multiplied by 0.72 over 2.1.
Movement III
IIIWhat it adds up to
Plate V · The peak
The world’s births peaked in 2012, in the UN’s central projection
146 million babies were born in 2012. Deaths rise as the world ages, and in 2084 they overtake births, the year the world’s population peaks at 10.3 billion. The range is wide: by 2100 the UN puts births between 85 million and 155 million a year.
Plate VI · Where babies are born
By 2100, almost one baby in two is born in Africa
In 1950, 12 of every 100 babies were born in Africa and 62 in Asia. In 2023, 35 and 50. In the UN's projection for 2100, 48 and 38.
Plate VII · India
India went below replacement in 2020; its people keep growing until 2061
India's fertility fell from 5.73 in 1950 to 1.98 in 2023, crossing 2.1 29 years after China. The population goes on rising because so many Indians are young: in the UN's central projection it peaks in 2061 at 1.70 billion.
Plate VIII · Why India keeps growing
Fewer babies, more parents
In 2023 India had 115 million children under five and 128 million aged 15 to 19: the base of its pyramid has already narrowed. The bulge of young adults carries the population up for another 38 years. By 2061 the largest age group is 55 to 59.