Long Term Thinking

It would be inconvenient if something bad happened, so it can't happen

Scott Alexander's review of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' reveals how our brains malfunction when faced with scary but uncertain threats that would require life changes. We suddenly become strict scientists demanding proof, applying standards we ignore elsewhere—what he calls 'insane moon epistemology.' This cognitive bias explains why we sleepwalk into obvious disasters while nitpicking warnings about inconvenient possibilities.